Australian workers earning average wages are staring down a recovery timeline stretching all the way to 2037, according to new modelling from The Australia Institute that uses the Reserve Bank’s own forecasts to calculate how long it will take real wages to return to their 2021 levels. For the cleaning and hygiene sector, where frontline staff already sit among the lowest paid workers in the country, this finding carries particular weight.
The analysis, authored by chief economist Greg Jericho, found that someone earning $90,000 at the end of the pandemic is now roughly $4,500 worse off each year in real terms, even after receiving average pay rises. Jericho framed this erosion in purchasing power as a significant hidden crisis for ordinary workers, distinct from the usual headlines about inflation, interest rates and property prices.
What this means for cleaning operators
Cleaning businesses operate on thin margins and rely heavily on award wage structures, so a prolonged period of falling real wages compounds existing recruitment and retention pressures across the industry. Workers who feel the pinch of stagnant pay are increasingly weighing up whether commercial cleaning, hospitality or retail roles offer better prospects, and operators who cannot differentiate on pay need to find other ways to hold onto staff.
Bran Horan, profit growth expert at Lucrature, has seen flexible working arrangements prove genuinely popular among cleaning crews, though he cautions that they come with a real administrative cost. Looking ahead, Horan expects operators to focus increasingly on measures that reduce costs directly rather than simply adding perks, with salary sacrifice arrangements offering value primarily to higher income earners within a workforce.
On the competition for staff, Horan points to a personality dynamic that works in cleaning’s favour. “Hospitality and retail roles tend to draw more extroverted candidates,” he says, “while cleaning continues to attract workers who prefer quieter, more independent work. Operators who want to capture that pool need to offer competitive pay alongside a working environment staff can genuinely take pride in.”
Building loyalty when wages cannot keep pace
Training, clear progression pathways and a genuine commitment to workplace safety and wellbeing are becoming more valuable as recruitment tools precisely because wages alone are unlikely to improve quickly. Business owners across the sector have told INCLEAN that non wage benefits, from flexible scheduling to recognition programs, are doing more of the heavy lifting in keeping crews together.
Horan takes a blunter view of the pay question itself, arguing that the sector faces an unavoidable reckoning given the scale of post pandemic inflation. Wages need to track close to current inflation rates, he says, or the industry risks never closing the gap, even by 2037. Looking further ahead, he predicts a workforce shaped by cheaper robotic technology, with fewer cleaners overall but meaningfully higher pay for those who remain.
The Reserve Bank’s own trajectory, factored into the Australia Institute’s modelling, suggests wage growth will remain subdued for years, meaning cleaning businesses cannot simply wait out the downturn. Building loyalty now, through better conditions and career development, may prove the difference between a stable workforce and a revolving door.
